by Wayne Besen • February 23, 2026 • News, Opinion, Politics, Weekly Column • Comments (0) • 196

Venezuela Operation Is Reason to Oppose War With Iran

Trump is an Irrational Actor, With No Plan, Surrounded by Yes-Men

Writing a column is nothing if not an exercise in predication. The writer attempts to evaluate evidence to mediate reality. The reader checks their own assumptions against the columnist to arrive at their own conclusion. The point isn’t agreeing or disagreeing but going on a journey to make sense of the world.

But how do we make predictions in Trump’s unpredictable world? How do we make sense of events that are so random and senseless?

During other presidencies there is a certain logic that can be relied upon. There is scientific evidence, economic numbers, fact-based, objective truth and a dose of historical precedent. How do you understand truth and precedent when a forcefield of fiction is peddled by a presidential administration?

Instead of relying on traditional instruments of measurement and fact, we are increasingly left navigating Donald Trump’s mercurial mood swings. It requires placing oneself in the shoes of a malignant narcissist with daddy issues.

The next step is to predict how a deep bench of sycophantic, bootlicking apparatchiks will respond to Dear Leader. These proverbial Bozos in the clown car are mediocre, middle managers who owe their fancy titles to Trump. Without complete fealty they will fail. If their nose ain’t brown they will be run out of town.

The final two factors that influence predicting America’s actions are considering the reaction of financial markets and the faith-based fanaticism of Trump’s base. Even a wannabe dictator has a few constraints.

So, based on these considerations, my formula for political predictions has been reduced to: Trump’s Lunacy + Lackey Loyalty + Billionaire Business Interests + Religious Zealotry + History = The Outcome.

Even the topic of today’s column was unpredictable because I had set out to comment on Trump’s likely attack on Iran. I quickly realized I didn’t have the facts available in normal times to offer an analysis.

The president has not given a coherent reason for amassing a lethal armada off the coast of Iran, nor has he explained his gambit to Congress or the American people. His incoherent rationale keeps changing, depending on his arbitrary and capricious moods, tantrums, or whatever they happen to be at any given hour.